Bareeg Kalsoonida. Waa maxay iyo sida loo isticmaali karaa?

bareeg Kalsoonida, yimid noo berrinkii istaatistikada. Tani kala duwan oo gaar ah, taas oo u adeegta si ay u qiyaasto dhimaya aan la aqoon leh Heer sare ah ee isku halaynta. Habka ugu fudud in aad taa sharaxdid waa la tusaale.

Ka soo qaad aad rabto si ay u sahamiyaan kasta oo qiimaha random, tus, waqti jawaab server codsi macmiilka. Mar kasta oo user noocyada cinwaan gaar ah, server ka jawaabayaa in ay xawaare kala duwan. Sidaas darteed, waqtiga jawaabta baaritaanka waa random. Sidaas daraaddeed, bareeg kalsoonida si loo ogaado xuduudaha dhimaya this, ka dibna waxa ay noqon doontaa suurto gal ah inuu ku doodo in la jaaniska ah 95% heerka fal-celin ah server waxay noqon doontaa in kala duwan ee xisaabiyaa noo by.

Ama aad rabto in aad ogaato sida badan dadka waa ay ka warqabaan sumadda ganacsiga ee shirkadda ka. Marka bareeg kalsoonida loo xisaabiyo, ka dibna waxa ay noqon doontaa suurto gal ah, tusaale ahaan, si ay sheegayaan in 95% saamiga itimaalka ee macaamiisha, kuwaas oo ka war this a brand, waa in kala duwan oo ka soo 27% ilaa 34%.

Tan iyo markii xilli ciyaareedkan waa si dhow la xiriira qiimaha noocan oo kale ah sida heerka kalsoonida ah. Waxaa macquul ah in doorasho la doonayo waxaa ka mid ahaa in bareeg kalsoonida. From qiimaha this waxay ku xiran tahay sida weyn u noqon doonaa duwan our la doonayo. The ka weyn qiimaha ku qaata, ayaa cidhiidhi ku bareeg kalsoonida, iyo qeybsanaan. Sida caadiga ah waxaa lagu wadaa in uu 90%, 95% ama 99%. qiimaha 95% waa ugu caansan.

qayb firfircoon sidoo kale saamayn ku kala firidhsan of indhaynta iyo size tijaabada. Its qeexid ku salaysan tahay male ah in uu sifo su'aasha ku xiran yahay sharciga caadiga ah qaybinta. Qoraalkan waxaa sidoo kale loo yaqaan Law Gauss ee. Sida laga soo xigtay isaga si, tani waxaa la yiraahdaa qaybinta caadiga ah ee variable ah oo joogto ah random in lagu tilmaami karaa by cufnaanta jaaniska. Haddii saadaasha ah ee qaybinta caadi cadeeyay inuu yahay khalad, markaas qiyaasta noqon kartaa qalad ah.

First, aynu sida loo xisaabiyo bareeg kalsoonida ee ka qaban filasho. Waxaa jira laba kiis oo suurto gal ah. Firidhsan (degree of kala firdhaan of variable ka random) laga garan karo ama ma. Haddii la yaqaan, bareeg kalsooni our saaraa iyadoo la isticmaalayo formula soo socda:

HSR - t * σ / (sqrt (n)) <= α <= HSR + t * σ / (sqrt (n)), kuna waari dhexdeeda

α - calaamad,

t - dhimaya horyaalka Laplace qaybinta,

sqrt (n) - xididka laba jibbaaran oo ah wadarta guud ee mugga muunad ,

σ - xididka laba jibbaaran ee kala duwanaanshaha.

Haddii cadow aan la garanayn, waxaa loo xisaabin karaa, haddaynu og nahay oo dhan qiyamka sifo la doonayo. Si arrintan loo sameeyo, u isticmaal caanaha soo socda:

σ2 = h2sr - (HSR) 2, kuna waari dhexdeeda

h2sr - qiimaha celceliska ah ee god oo ka mid ah sifo ah bartay,

(HSR) 2 - square macnaheedu qiimaha of dabeecadda.

formula The by kaas oo kiiskan loo xisaabiyaa bareeg kalsoonida waa wax yar oo kala duwan:

HSR - t * s / (sqrt (n)) <= α <= HSR + t * s / (sqrt (n)), kuna waari dhexdeeda

XCP - saamiga macnaheedu,

α - calaamad,

t - dhimaya la helay by qaybinta Student miiska t = t (ɣ, n-1),

sqrt (n) - xididka square of size saamiga,

s - xididka laba jibbaaran ee kala duwanaanshaha.

Ka fiirso tusaale this. U qaadan in natiijada 7 cabbir la goostay qiimaha celceliska feature imtixaanka, oo waa loo siman yahay ilaa 30 iyo cadow saamiga loo siman yahay si 36. Waa in la helay ixtimaal qiyaas ahaan 99% kalsoonida bareeg taas oo ka kooban qiimaha dhabta ah ee dhimaya qiyaasay.

Marka hore waxaan u qeexaan waxa t ah: t = t (0,99; 7-1) = 3.71. Isticmaalka caanaha ee kor ku xusan, waxaan ka heli:

HSR - t * s / (sqrt (n)) <= α <= HSR + t * s / (sqrt (n))

30 - 3.71 * 36 / (sqrt (7)) <= α <= 30 + 3,71 * 36 / (sqrt (7))

21,587 <= α <= 38,413

bareeg The kalsooni kala duwanaanshaha waxaa loo xisaabiyaa sida uu yahay kiiska la celceliska la yaqaan, iyo marka ay jirto ma jirto xogta ku saabsan filasho xisaabta, iyo qiimaha la garanayo dhibic cadow aan eex ku qiimaysay oo kaliya. Waxaan halkan ma siin doono formula ee ay xisaabinta, tan iyo markii ay arrin adag iyo, haddii la doonayo, waxay had iyo jeer waxaa laga heli karaa shabakada yihiin.

Waxaan la soco oo kaliya in bareeg kalsoonida waxaa haboon goostay isticmaalaya barnaamijka ama network adeegga Excel ah, oo la odhan jiray.